
On Bola Tinubu’s first full day in office as Nigeria’s president, a brawl broke out in Lagos between the country’s secret police and the anti-graft agency in what analysts say could set the tone for the security outlook in the next four years.
Armed State Security Service officials on 30 May cordoned off the office of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and prevented staff of the agency from gaining access to the building, with the secret police saying they were reclaiming possession of the property.
“It is, sadly, an indication of how things will go depending on how the Tinubu
administration responds,†Kabir Adamu, a security expert, tells The Africa Report.
“This, believe me, will be a litmus test for his administration.â€
‘Doing the right thing’
Tinubu was sworn into office on 29 May as Nigeria’s president for the next four years but opposition parties have gone to court to challenge the outcome of the February presidential polls.
In the week before the presidential inauguration, armed men attacked communities in Mangu, in Nigeria’s north-central, killing over 100 people, according to Amnesty International. Dozens of villagers have remained missing since the attack.
Such incidents underscore the depth to which insecurity has plunged in Nigeria since 2015 when Tinubu’s party, the All Progressives Congress, took power.
In the eight years that Muhammadu Buhari, Tinubu’s predecessor, presided over the country’s affairs, more than 60,000 persons were killed across Nigeria. According to the Nigeria Security Tracker, a project of the Council on Foreign Relations, the deaths arose from terrorism, banditry, and farmers-herders clashes among others.
In his first inaugural address as Nigeria’s president, Tinubu said security would be the top priority in his administration.
“We shall invest more in our security personnel, and this means more than an increase in number. We shall provide better training, equipment, pay and firepower,†the president said.
But such rhetorical flourishes are common with Nigeria’s political leaders. Tinubu’s predecessor also talked tough on the same day in 2015.
“When every government comes, they have a lot to say and most of what they say comes from what we all have been saying,†Roy Okhidievbie, the national secretary, Retired Members of Nigeria Armed Forces, tells The Africa Report. He believes the government has to get out of the way.
“Over the years, we have been at the government’s throat begging and asking them to do the right thing and every government that comes goes straight again to say ‘I’ll give you security, good roads, power supply…
“My take on this is that you don’t need to give us [anything]. There is a system on the ground, if you allow the system to work, those things you mentioned as promises, they will be seamless and they will just take shape.â€
Military spending
In the five years of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, between 2011 and 2015 Nigeria’s defence budget totalled $11.5bn. Jonathan’s successor, Buhari, earmarked $14bn in his first six years for military spending.
The latter administration’s massive investment in security did not, however, translate to improvement in the sector, according to Adamu, who is the managing director of Beacon Consulting, an enterprise security risk management and Intelligence solutions provider.
“While I will score him (Buhari) a pass for commitment, sadly, the outcome of that commitment did not indicate a pass,†says Adamu, who adds that the consultancy he runs documented 12,000 Nigerians killed in 2022.
“12,000 Nigerians were killed and, in any ramification, that is a failure.â€
The new president, Tinubu, will be inheriting a 2023 budget in which N2.98trn ($6.5bn) was allocated to defense and security. Of the N1.2trn ($2.5bn) going to the defense ministry, less than 13% is earmarked for capital expenditure.